IN-GOVD +2.1 0.6OH-SENR +1.4 0.3KY-06D +4.8 1.2IA-03TIE 0.9NE-02D +0.7 0.4OH-09D +3.2 0.5MI-SEND +1.0 0.3IN-GOVD +2.1 0.6OH-SENR +1.4 0.3KY-06D +4.8 1.2IA-03TIE 0.9NE-02D +0.7 0.4OH-09D +3.2 0.5MI-SEND +1.0 0.3
Tracking · May 16, 2026 · 1 min read

Reading a tracking line without fooling yourself

Noise vs. signal in rolling micro-samples, with a worked example.

FD
Daniel Thomas
Polling & Analytics

Rolling micro-samples are noisy by design. Here is how to separate signal from noise, with a worked example from a live race.

The Breakdown

Our read on where the races stand, in your inbox. The trend line between the polls.