IN-GOVD +2.1 0.6OH-SENR +1.4 0.3KY-06D +4.8 1.2IA-03TIE 0.9NE-02D +0.7 0.4OH-09D +3.2 0.5MI-SEND +1.0 0.3IN-GOVD +2.1 0.6OH-SENR +1.4 0.3KY-06D +4.8 1.2IA-03TIE 0.9NE-02D +0.7 0.4OH-09D +3.2 0.5MI-SEND +1.0 0.3
The BreakdownMethodology
Methodology · May 30, 2026 · 1 min read

Why we weight every poll by hand-checked turnout history

Post-stratification is only as good as the target. Here's how we build ours.

FD
Daniel Thomas
Polling & Analytics

Post-stratification is only as good as the target you weight to. We build ours from hand-checked turnout history rather than a vendor's modeled file.

The Breakdown

Our read on where the races stand, in your inbox. The trend line between the polls.